EV & Microprocessor Plants Drive Industrial Development in 2024
Key Takeaways
- With cooling warehousing demand and steeper access to credit, industrial construction normalized with 33% less industrial space underway now as compared to Q1 2023.
- Phoenix overtook Dallas to become the industrial market with the most space in the pipeline (42.5 million square feet).
- EV and chip manufacturing facilities are beginning to displace logistics centers from the list of largest industrial completions.
- Savannah, Ga., is home to the largest industrial development to be delivered in 2024 — the 17-million-square-foot Hyundai EV plant.
- The largest industrial completions in 2023 showcased the tail end of the warehouse construction boom, with all 10 largest properties being logistics facilities.
After a fiery hot start to the decade, logistics-led industrial development is now winding down and manufacturing is poised to take center stage. Considerable investments in domestic semiconductor and electric vehicle (EV) production are driving an unprecedented surge in manufacturing construction — and the effects of the boom can already be seen in the 2024 industrial development pipeline.
So, using industrial property construction data provided by CommercialEdge, we set out to identify the markets with the most new industrial supply underway, as well as the largest properties scheduled for delivery this year. What we found was that while the drop in construction of logistics centers is certainly being felt in the total square footage of new industrial projects, some markets are riding high on the manufacturing wave.
National Industrial Construction Drops 33% Y-o-Y, Phoenix Overtakes Dallas in Industrial Supply Underway
There is currently 463 million square feet of industrial space under construction nationwide, representing 2.4% of current industrial stock. The space currently in the pipeline represents a drop of almost one-third compared to January 2023, when the 690 million square feet of space underway stood as a testament to investor appetite and more lenient corporate lending conditions. However, since then, the square footage of new industrial projects breaking ground has been outpaced by completions, which led to the drop.
#1. Phoenix
After trailing more traditional industrial markets throughout its history, Phoenix is poised to deliver the most new industrial supply nationally with 42.5 million square feet. While that’s still an 18% year-over-year (Y-o-Y) drop in industrial space in the works, the gap between projects delivered in 2023 and those that broke ground during the same period is less acute in the Valley of the Sun than it is elsewhere. Plus, the space currently under construction in the Valley of the Sun will boost the area’s industrial inventory by more than 11% to provide much-needed leeway in a market where vacancies rested around the 3% mark throughout 2023.
Moreover, it’s no longer just supply chain logistics driving construction of industrial properties in Phoenix. Of the five largest projects underway in the metro, two are distribution centers; two more — TSMC’s chip plant and Lucid Motors’ EV factory — are manufacturing properties; and the last is a Meta data center in Mesa, Ariz.
#2. Dallas
The Dallas industrial market currently has 33.6 million square feet of industrial supply under construction, representing the nation’s second-largest industrial expansion. This normalization comes after a record-breaking 62 million square feet of Dallas industrial space — 7.1% of the metro's stock at the time — was under construction in January 2023.
Here, the Metroplex’s industrial market was one of the largest benefactors of the logistics and distribution boom, and the ensuing wind-down is evident in the 45% drop in stock under construction year-over-year. Of the 10 largest projects on the way here, all but one are buildings located in logistics and industrial parks, the largest of which is the 1.76-million-square-foot development of three buildings in the Gateway Crossing Logistics Park in Forney, Texas.
#3. Savannah, Ga.
An unlikely podium presence, Savannah has just under 30 million square feet of new industrial space in the works, placing it third nationally. Granted, more than half of the space being built in Savannah is due to Hyundai’s mammoth EV manufacturing plant, which will total 17 million square feet. Even so, the industrial stock being built here is set to increase the market’s total square footage by almost one-quarter, which is the largest pipeline-to-inventory ratio in the country by far.
Furthermore, as port markets become increasingly undersupplied, investors are looking for alternative locations with room for development. And, that’s exactly the niche that Savannah fulfills with the city’s industrial inventory becoming one of the fastest-growing in the U.S. Additionally, the Port of Savannah is currently undergoing an expansion estimated at $2 billion, which will surely further the industrial market’s significance in the coming years.
#4. Inland Empire, Calif.
California’s Inland Empire currently has 19.4 million square feet of industrial space underway for the fourth-largest expansion by sheer square footage in the U.S.
As the primary destination for spillover demand for industrial space from the neighboring Los Angeles market, the Inland Empire skipped ahead to claim the fourth-largest industrial market in the nation. That said, the area is experiencing the same slowdown in new industrial developments as seen elsewhere, and vacancies have also risen to around 5% from 2% at the start of last year. However, the situation is complicated by rising industrial rents, which are up almost 15% in the market.
#5. Austin, Texas
At 130 million square feet of total inventory as of January 2024, the Austin industrial market is undersized compared to other Texas cities with longer-standing traditions. Even so, there is more than 18 million square feet of Austin industrial space in the pipeline — 14% of the city’s current stock — indicating that developers are making strides in fulfilling new-found demand in the burgeoning advanced manufacturing hub.
While many of Austin’s 84 industrial buildings scheduled to be completed in 2024 are warehouses in logistics parks, the metro’s largest developments currently being built are both manufacturing facilities: Samsung’s semiconductor factory in Taylor, Texas, will total 6 million feet of space, whereas Tesla’s 1.4-million-square-foot battery cathode building is being added to its Giga Texas factory.
#6. Chicago
Chicago is currently the only industrial real estate market with an inventory larger than 1 billion square feet of space — and one of the most historically significant nationally. Yet, with 13 million square feet of industrial space currently underway (1.3% of total stock), developments in the Windy City are at a multi-year low.
After the industrial development heyday driven by speculative construction, the new trends could help bring the industrial market closer to equilibrium. There are currently 27 industrial properties larger than 25,000 square feet scheduled for 2024 in the metro, averaging about 470,000 square feet per property. For comparison, Phoenix has 155 properties averaging 271,000 square feet, while Dallas has 110 properties and an average of 295,000 square feet. Industrial real estate in Chicago faces less occupancy pressure than similar high-volume markets, leading developers to focus on a lower number of larger projects.
#7. Houston
Another historic market for industrial property, Houston is facing the same demand headwinds as Dallas-Fort Worth and Chicago. The normalization in tenant demand and investor appetite has also lead to a drop in space under construction in Houston, going from 23 million square feet at the start of last year to 12.5 million now.
Moreover, only two industrial properties larger than 1 million square feet are currently being built in Houston — a Target distribution center at the Beltway 66 Logistics Park and Building 1 of the Port 99 park.
#8. Charlotte, N.C.
Charlotte’s 11.5 million square feet of industrial space under construction made it the eighth-fastest-growing market in the U.S., ahead of nearby Raleigh-Durham’s 8.1 million square feet (#14) and Greenville, S.C.‘s 7.9 million (#17). As one of the Southeast’s fastest-growing logistics hubs, all of Charlotte’s largest developments underway are either logistics parks or warehouses in mixed-use centers. These include properties in the 85 North Logistics Center, the Lincoln Commerce West center and Axial’s Bonds Farm. These developments alone account for almost 3.3 million of industrial space in Charlotte.
#9. Las Vegas
Yet another fast-growing industrial real estate destination, Las Vegas has just over 11 million square feet of new stock underway. That represents an 8.4% rise to the current stock of 132 million square feet — the fourth-largest increase on the list relative to a market's size. The line-up of largest properties to be delivered here includes logistics parks such as the North Vegas Logistics Center and Vantage North.
#10. Kansas City, Mo.
Closing out the list of the top 10 cities with the most new industrial inventory under construction, Kansas City has 10.8 million square feet of space underway, or 3.9% of its current stock. Notably, that’s a slight increase from the 10.6 million square feet that was under construction in early 2023, making Kansas City one of the few markets to see construction starts outpace deliveries last year. In this case, the fact is at least partly explained by how undersupplied the area is. Vacancies for Kansas City industrial real estate stood at only 2.7% in December 2023 — the lowest vacancy rate among all major U.S. industrial markets.
The graph below showcases the markets which are set to expand the most with the industrial space currently in their pipeline.
Hyundai EV Plant in Georgia Overshadows 2024’s Largest Industrial Completions
In August 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act went into effect, providing (among other measures) incentives for electric vehicles and clean energy production. That same month, the CHIPS and Science Act began providing funding for domestic production of semiconductors. The result has been the sharpest increase in U.S. manufacturing plant construction in history as companies scrambled to take advantage of the incentives. Now, a year and a half later, the effects are starting to be noticed as EV factories and semiconductor manufacturing plants are taking over the list of largest industrial facilities slated for delivery — a list that had been dominated by Amazon distribution centers since 2020.
However, one industrial property scheduled for a 2024 delivery dwarfed all others: the 17-million-square-foot, $7.6-billion electric vehicle plant in metro Savannah, Ga. The size and significance of Hyundai’s new manufactory can’t be understated. Located on a lot spanning almost 3,000 acres, construction efforts alone provided more than 2,000 jobs. Then, once finished, the plant will produce more than 300,000 EVs every year and employ more than 8,000 workers. Hyundai’s factory will also house facilities for every step in the production process of EVs, from stamping and welding to assembly, while also producing batteries for the vehicles in a partnership with LG Energy Solution.
Up next, the Merrill Commerce Center’s Buildings 4, 5 and 7 are all set to be delivered in Q1 and Q2 this year, with the 8900 Merrill Ave. development already opening early in the year. Taken together, these industrial developments in Ontario, Calif. — part of the Inland Empire market — total more than 7.5 million square feet of industrial space, making the logistics center the site of this year’s second-largest industrial project.
At #3, semiconductor plants also made their entry with Samsung’s facility in Taylor, Texas, in metro Austin. Phase 1 of the chip plant is scheduled for completion in Q3, with Phase 2 following in Q4 for a combined 6 million square feet of Austin industrial space — one-third of the market’s total to be delivered this year.
On the East Coast, Amazon’s 3.86-million-square-foot distribution center in Johnston, R.I., was initially scheduled to open in Q3 2023, but construction delays pushed it into the 2024 pipeline with a targeted March opening date. Dubbed Project Schooner, the facility was expected to be last year’s largest industrial delivery. This year, though, it was outshined by the podium finishers to land at #4, instead.
Two more Amazon warehouses made the list: First, a highly automated fulfillment center in Loveland, Colo., totaling 3.5 million square feet of industrial space near Denver made it to #5 and is scheduled for a late-year delivery. Additionally, a 2.85-million-square-foot facility in Charlton, Mass., is being developed for the e-commerce giant by USAA Real Estate. However, these may be among the last Amazon projects to make the top 10 for a while as the company has been gradually cancelling warehouse expansion since 2022.
The remainder of the top 10 largest projects slated to open their doors in 2024 featured a mix of manufacturing and distribution. For example, electric luxury and sports car manufacturer Lucid Motor is behind the eighth-largest development — Phase 2 of its Phoenix metro plant — while the ninth-largest is a battery production facility in Lansing, Mich., that will be occupied by GM supplier Ultium Cells.
Meanwhile, FRED130 — an industrial park spearheaded by Panattoni Development — made it to #6, while the Rentschler Field Logistics Center at #10 will bring 2.5 million square feet of warehouse space, as well as advanced manufacturing to the Bridgeport, Conn., industrial market.
Largest Industrial Completions in 2023 Showcase Results of Logistics & Distribution Boom
While the 2024 pipeline combines manufacturing and warehouse space, last year’s completions were still dominated by logistics and distribution centers that started construction during the boom.
The largest 2023 completion took place at NorthPoint’s Keystone Trade Center in metro Philadelphia. Buildings 1, 3, 5 and 6 were all completed last year for a total of 4.2 million square feet of industrial space added to the metro’s market. Additionally, one other NorthPoint industrial development also made the list — the Intermodal Logistics Center’s Buildings 5 through 7 in Fort Worth, Texas, reached #5. Besides these, one more industrial park closed the top 10 list with Phoenix’s West 202 Logistics.
The remaining properties among the top 10 completions last year were all Amazon-occupied warehouses in locations including Eugene, Ore.; Boston; Baton Rouge, La.; Dayton, Ohio; and Tallahassee, Fla., among others. These ranged from 2.6 million square feet to 3.84 million square feet and were the last waves of regional distribution and fulfillment centers before Amazon halted further expansion.
| Market | Under Construction (Million Sq. Ft.) | Current Stock (Million Sq. Ft.) | Under Construction as % of Current Stock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | 42.5 | 380.9 | 11.1% |
| Dallas | 33.6 | 930.1 | 3.6% |
| Savannah | 29.8 | 123.8 | 24.1% |
| Inland Empire | 19.4 | 644.6 | 3.0% |
| Austin | 18.2 | 129.5 | 14.1% |
| Chicago | 13.2 | 1,040.1 | 1.3% |
| Houston | 12.5 | 591.3 | 2.1% |
| Charlotte | 11.5 | 315.3 | 3.7% |
| Las Vegas | 11.1 | 131.7 | 8.4% |
| Kansas City | 10.8 | 275.8 | 3.9% |
| Memphis | 10.7 | 295.4 | 3.6% |
| Philadelphia | 9.2 | 436.6 | 2.1% |
| Denver | 8.1 | 262.1 | 3.1% |
| Raleigh | 8.1 | 114.5 | 7.1% |
| Miami | 8.1 | 197.4 | 4.1% |
| New Jersey | 8.0 | 561.2 | 1.4% |
| Greenville | 7.9 | 210.0 | 3.8% |
| Detroit | 7.9 | 554.0 | 1.4% |
| Washington, D.C. | 7.7 | 155.7 | 4.9% |
| Indianapolis | 7.2 | 358.4 | 2.0% |
Methodology
All data on markets and individual properties is courtesy of CommercialEdge. Data on projected completion dates of individual properties was extracted on January 17, 2024. Market-wide square footages in the pipeline were as of December 2023. The ranking included industrial properties with projected completion dates in 2024, which may include properties already completed as of the writing of this article. While CommercialEdge attempts to ensure data accuracy, final completion and opening dates may differ.
Only industrial properties larger than 25,000 square feet were covered in the report. For mixed-use properties, this includes other commercial real estate types, including office, retail and multifamily space.
In the case of construction projects in the same industrial park, the square footage displayed is the sum of all projects under construction in the same park, regardless of completion date in the same year.