RICS Monitor: Expect CRE Markets to Show Modest Recovery in 2024

February 2, 2024

Senior Economist Tarrant Parsons reveals the world’s pockets of economic strength and the areas of continued weakness.

There’s no sign of a meaningful improvement in momentum across commercial real estate markets, but there are a few reasons to be somewhat more optimistic about the outlook for 2024, according to the fourth quarter Global Commercial Real Estate Monitor released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors in London.

One of the most promising aspects is a significant turnaround in interest rate expectations. Additionally, the number of CRE professionals who view their CRE market to be in a downturn has been gradually moderating over the past three quarters.

“This idea that we’ve reached the bottom of the cycle is especially prevalent in markets such as the U.S.,” Parsons said.

READ ALSO: Interest Rates Stay Put Again

Meanwhile, capital value projections are still mixed for traditional mainstream sectors. Much of the weakness continues to stem from secondary office and retail. In contrast, alternative sectors such as data centers and life sciences are anticipated to see an uplift in capital values.

Tune in to hear what else Parsons revealed to Commercial Property Executive Senior Editor Laura Calugar in the first episode this year of our quarterly podcast series!

Here’s a dropdown of the topics discussed:

The general feedback stemming from the latest report (1:03)
Have credit conditions stabilized in any world region? (2:02)
Where the property cycle is today (3:23)
Why occupier demand remains firmer than the investment market (4:38)
Global capital value projections for the next 12 months (6:01)
APAC’s CRE market (7:51)
India’s growth and how its economy compares to China’s (9:09)
CRE sentiment across Europe (11:43)
Why both occupier and investor sentiment improved in the Middle East and Africa (13:05)
Modest signs of improvement in North America (14:12)
Will 2024 be as challenging as 2023? (15:30)