Top Retail Tenants’ Expansion Plans

Image by Anna Dziubinska via Unsplash

The growth plans of the nation’s foremost retail tenants vary wildly, according to Northmarq’s second-quarter report, The Top 100 Tenant Expansion Trends.

The report first reviews the S&P and Moody’s credit ratings for these top 100 tenants. It then reviews 14 categories of retail tenants: Apparel; Automotive; Convenience Stores; Discount, Wholesale & Dollar Stores; Drugstores & Personal Care; Fitness & Sporting Goods; Grocery; Home Furnishings, Crafts & Electronics; Home Improvement; Medical; Pet Supplies; Restaurants (Casual Dining); Restaurants (Quick Service); and Retail Banking.

Across those categories, Northmarq tallies store openings and closings since the start of this year and provides estimates of the chains’ plans for both new stores and remodeled stores over the remainder of 2023, and in some cases over longer time horizons.

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Perhaps unsurprisingly, retail tenants’ expansion plans vary wildly. In the Discount, Wholesale & Dollar Stores category, for example, Dollar General already operates more than 19,000 stores in 47 states and is looking to open at least 1,050 new stores, while remodeling 2,000 stores and relocating 120 in 2023.

In the same category, Big Lots currently operates 1,427 stores across 48 states, but has indicated plans to build just one new store this summer, while closing three stores in California and four in Colorado.

With this density of information, the report should be a valuable resource for numerous CRE professionals.

Established and new

To flesh out trends in the retail real estate space, Commercial Property Executive contacted long-time retailing guru Garrick Brown, currently vice president of real estate intelligence & business development at Gallelli Real Estate, Roseville, Calif., who highlighted some trends—two in particular—that this report does not.

One, he says, “is the massive wave of new entertainment and experiential retail concepts (from Puttshack and TopGolf, to a dozen different pickleball concepts, virtual arcades, barcades, etc.).” He referenced a recent JLL report which predicted that more than 9 million square feet will be developed in this category over the next two years.

Along similar lines, Brown added that “health clubs and gyms are finally back in growth mode following the industry washout of 2020 and not a lot of activity from most chains in 2021/2022. All of these are online-resistant concepts.”

Even bigger, though Brown predicts, is “the wave of new QSR and fast casual restaurant concepts out there. For example, Shaquille O’Neal’s Big Chicken chain at this point maybe has four or five units open. There are something like 275 in development (franchise rights sold) coming up behind that.”

“Chicken is a monster growth area,” he continued, including both established brands like Chick fil-A, Raising Cane’s, Popeye’s and KFC and new ones like Slim Chickens, Starbird, Angry Chickz, Chicken Salad Chick, Dave’s Nashville Hot Chicken and a dozen more.

Similarly, the coffee space is seeing strong growth from the giants—Starbucks and Dunkin’—and from newer entrants like Dutch Bros, Scooter’s, Black Rifle Coffee, Biggby and Caribou Coffee, Brown said.